A Shares Have No Room For Further Decline.

Last week, the A share market broke down a number of important support positions, and the small boat of the bull market turned over.

Ren Zeping, who has been optimistic about singing many times before, recently held a report on the 2016 China capital market investment strategy, which was won by Cci Capital Ltd in Guangzhou. He still stood firm and optimistic about China's economic development and the trend of A shares.

At the meeting, he said that the bottom of the A shares had been confirmed, and now that the party constitution has burst into the A stock market, there is no room for A shares to drop.

The following is a question and answer arrangement for exclusive interviews.

Talk about stock market: at present safety zone

Last week, A shares fell significantly. Do you have a change in opinion about stock market?

Ren Zeping: with the recovery of China's economic cycle, it will last until the end of the two quarter and the beginning of the three quarter, and with the continued friendly policy, we think May is still optimistic.

What are the recommendations for investors at the present stage? What are the good sectors of A shares?

Ren Zeping: my view is very simple.

I am not pessimistic about A shares. At present, the market is gradually getting safer and most of the risks have been released.

The future market should be the bottom of the rhythm of turbulence, the downward space is not large.

Unless the collapse of China's economic system, A shares are relatively safe in the current range, investors can do some trading, the band, the structural market, or dig through the cycle of Bull Stock and so on.

The company's share price in the future will probably continue to hit a new high.

I think the field of distribution should be the industry with continuous growth, supply side contraction, cost saving and breakthroughs in new technology and new mode.

Talking about the US dollar and the bond market: we need to be alert to the risk of bond market.

Ren Zeping: the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 93 and 96.

I don't think the Fed will exceed the expected rate hike this year, raising interest rates by one or two times at most.

First, the US monetary policy is only for domestic interests, and the US economy is thriving, but it can not withstand high-frequency interest rates.

Second, at present, the United States is now a general election cycle. Under the general election period, there will not be too tight policies to make the ruling party lose votes.

Third, Yellen has always been a dove.

So this year, the Federal Reserve does not have high expectations of raising interest rates.

How to evaluate the current bond market?

Ren Zeping: for the debt market, our recent view is cautious.

Because of economic recovery expectations, inflation expectations, default and other factors.

Moreover, the bull market of the bond market has been two years ago. To some extent, there has been a certain overdraft, so we should be a little cautious.

Talk about price rising: over matching gold and bulk commodities

For the present

Ren Zeping: there are several core factors that determine the trend of the market in the future. One is the fundamentals of China's economy. The cycle of China's economic cycle is expected to last until the end of the two quarter and the beginning of the three quarter. In May and 4, the profit margin ratio rose.

The driving force is mainly from the recovery of real estate, which is now warming from the first line to the second line of hot spots, including the three or four line cities.

The biggest difference is that the rise of real estate prices in the first place is no land supply. The sustained effect is not strong, and the driving effect on the economy is limited. It can only lead to popularity; however, the supply of land in the two or three line cities is sufficient, and once its real estate industry rises, it will be able to drive China's investment vigorously.

So we think that the fundamentals of the economy will be good until the two quarter, and the ratio should be improved.

The two is inflation.

We are worried that inflation will lead to tighter monetary policy and lead to financial risks.

But at present, China's economic structural factors determine the entire capacity surplus, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the whole inflation.

So we expect moderate inflation this year, and moderate inflation will not affect the tightening of monetary policy.

Because of the current data, the inflation rate is still in the observation period.

The three is reform, and China's reform is still advancing.

But the characteristic of bear market is no response to good, but it can not be denied that it is good for reform.

If the market logic is destroyed, it can only be a callback of the economy beyond expectations.

Because of the current improvement in the market economy and

There is a consensus on stability. It is certain that the logic that destroys this logic is beyond expectation and unforeseen.

Why do we recommend investors to match gold and commodities?

Ren Zeping: in the past two years, China has plenty of liquidity and its currency is excessive.

China has in fact negative interest rates, real estate, bulk, agricultural products are rising, even if A shares are now around 3000 points, it is also 2 times higher.

Therefore, we must make large class asset allocation. At present, gold can still be super matched, and it will outperform bank deposits.

For bulk commodities, stir fried products such as iron ore can be properly avoided, and for less commodities and agricultural products, they can be properly concerned.