Xinjiang'S Cotton Market Trend Is Likely To Continue To Fall.

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Net Xiaobian to introduce to everyone is Xinjiang Cotton City, strong profits, continued to fall more likely.

Recently, Xinjiang cotton city continued to fall earlier, especially after the large number of machine picked cotton market, coupled with the weak demand for downstream, the voices of the parties are stronger.

Through understanding cotton growers, cotton enterprises and some textile enterprises, I feel that everyone is pessimistic about the overall market outlook.

Recently, the 116th Canton Fair closing, many domestic textile enterprises "performance" is not ideal, and the cotton yarn market has cast a shadow, cotton city will greet the annual "freezing point" moment.

The author analyzes:

First, the concentration of cotton on the market has increased substantially.

This year, the listing of Xinjiang cotton has been postponed for about 30 days compared with the previous years. But since November, the machine picked cotton has begun to be listed in large quantities.

Supply is increasing.

A cotton trader in Akesu who is doing cotton business in the near future says that cotton is everywhere and cotton ginning plants are selling at low prices.

As long as the cash is on the cash, many enterprises show that the price can be negotiable.

According to market forecasts, Xinjiang cotton output is between 400-420 tons this year, 30-50 tons less than the previous 4 million 500 thousand tons, but still accounts for more than 60% of the total output of the country.

Second, the pressure on cotton pportation is increasing.

Xinjiang cotton Sinop has always been a "big problem". First of all, because of the urgent need to pport the fruits and vegetables in Xinjiang at this time, it is difficult to regulate the cotton pportation of the wagon. Secondly, because many drivers in the mainland do not want to go to Xinjiang for cotton pportation because they are not familiar with road traffic.

The most important thing is that Xinjiang cotton's unified warehousing, public inspection and warehousing policies, as of 10 days, Xinjiang area lint public inspection completed 1095321 tons, while waiting for warehousing, public inspection enterprises are lined up "long", to cotton sales pressure.

Some contracts can not be fulfilled on time, forcing some cotton producers and textile enterprises in the mainland to purchase cotton from the mainland to maintain production.

Third, the price difference between cotton and cotton is widened.

As of 11, Qingdao, Hong Kong and Macau cotton SM 1-5/32 RMB mainstream offer 17300-17400 yuan / ton, M 1-5/32 price 17000 yuan / ton; India cotton S-6 1-5/32 RMB price 14400-15000 yuan / ton; Brazil cotton SM1-1/8 SM1-1/8 price 16500 yuan / ton.

Compared with Xinjiang cotton grade 3128, Australia cotton has an advantage in quality, while Brazil cotton and India cotton are basically the same as Xinjiang cotton.

However, at present, the cost of Akesu grade 3128 lint pportation to the mainland is 15600-16000 yuan / ton.

If the tariff rate is 1%, the price of cotton and cotton in the United States is 11500-12000 yuan / ton, and the difference between them is 4000 yuan / ton.

Fourth, there is a risk of continued price reduction in spinning enterprises.

Recently, the price of foreign yarn has been steadily decreasing. Among them, the price of 21 pieces of combs and India and Pakistan has been quoted at 19500-19600 yuan / ton, and the price difference between domestic and imported yarns is 700-800 yuan / ton, while the difference between 32 and 40 is 1000-1200 yuan / ton, so the sales of domestic yarn is still weak.

The 116th Canton Fair ended, and domestic textile enterprises once again failed. The price pressure of domestic yarn was once again put on the agenda.

Some mills say that the domestic yarn must be reduced by 300-400 yuan / ton in the near future, otherwise it will still be unable to compete with imported yarn.

Therefore, textile enterprises continue to suppress cotton prices, Xinjiang cotton bear the brunt.

To sum up, the author thinks that the domestic cotton market is struggling and the price pressure is not small.

At the crossroads, we believe that the market will give a clear answer in late November.