Cotton Prices Rebound Demand, The Market Outlook Fog "Flower"

Last week (6.25-6.29) domestic cotton spot prices continued to fall, although there was support for the new year's policy of purchasing and storage, but obviously.

This support point was not found, and the spot price volume remained low after the downstream market could not see the pessimism of the latter market.

The price of pure cotton yarn is still decreasing one by one, especially in the case of overstock.

The PMI index released at the weekend continued to decline to 50.2%, of which new orders, new exports and finished goods inventory indices were all different from Chengdu's decline and increase.

The weekly average price of China's cotton price index (CC Index328) was 18217 yuan / ton, 110 yuan lower than the previous week, 229 yuan 19344 yuan / ton, or 86 yuan; 527 level 15950 yuan / ton, or 104 yuan.

Last week, the trading volume was increased, and the rebound was trapped.

First, the domestic spot: after the fog, look at the "flower" downstream pessimism more.

Last week, domestic cotton spot prices continued to slide, the decline was more than last week, the turnover is still light.

In the downstream yarn and cotton market visit to understand that this year's sales market is generally lower than last year 20-30%, pure white yarn and pure cotton market is light and serious.

Downstream market reaction, because we can not see the trend of the market in the late stage, so pessimistic about the market outlook.

Some enterprises that have stock have indicated that they are willing to fight for the future market, but some enterprises also choose to sell spot products at a reasonable price.

Indeed, this year, whether upstream or downstream, the capital situation of enterprises is relatively difficult. Before it was first paid and shipped, it was often the first time that the goods were shipped out, and the amount of money needed to arrive.

According to the information feedback, the demand for cotton in the market is either high-grade Xinjiang cotton, because the real estate is not very high, and the horse value may not meet the requirements of the customers, or the lower grade of low-grade cotton.

According to the June production survey of the network, the total acreage in 2012 was about 71 million 490 thousand mu, compared with the net area of 78 million 750 thousand mu in 2011, which decreased by 7 million 260 thousand mu, a decrease of 9.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

It is estimated that the total output of cotton in China will be 6 million 600 thousand tons in 2012, which will be reduced by 590 thousand tons compared with 7 million 190 thousand tons in the 2011 year of the net, with a reduction of 8.2%.

At present, the cotton growing area in Northwest Xinjiang has begun topping, and the drought at the bottom of the the Yellow River basin is facing the drought before the relief. The growth of the Yangtze River Valley is slow, mainly because the rainfall in May affected the growth of cotton.

Two, matching pactions: cotton prices rebound demand economic data cautiously optimistic

Zhou (June 25th -6 29)

Trading market commodity cotton matching paction 65880 tons, an increase of 26840 tons over the previous week.

Weekly orders increased by 5140 tons, and cumulative orders increased to 126400 tons.

First, volume increased; when the weekly contracts were more active than the previous week, the MA1208 contract increased 14120 tonnes a week compared with the previous week by 8880 tons, the most active contract for the week trading, and the first week of the new MA1212 contract was 4680 tons.

Two, the volume of orders continued to increase; when the weekly ordering volume increased by 5140 tons compared with last week, except for the MA1207 contract slightly reduced by 40 tons in recent months, other contract orders were maintained. The order volume of the new MA1212 contract reached 2380 tons in the first week.

Three, the average price fell; although the weekly contracts at the highest and lowest prices were higher than the previous week, they fell again in the average price, while the average contract price of the MA1211 contract was reduced by 163 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

The new MA1212 contract has the highest price of 19050 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 18740 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price is 18913 yuan / ton.

The average price of other contracts fell at 78-160 yuan / ton.

Four, technically, the monthly average contract system in the market is repeated again and again. Uncertainties in macroeconomic market continue to suppress market confidence.

Three, the international market: Cotton rebound, the United States cotton sowing area is lower than expected

Both the internal and external factors of the upper cycle cotton were favorable, and the main contract returned to 70 cents / pound at the weekend.

On the periphery, European leaders agreed to take measures to rescue the troubled banks in the euro area and launch a package package to promote growth. Although German Chancellor Merkel repeatedly said he did not support eurozone common bonds and put pressure on the market for a while, the Euroleague chapter finally brought good news and brought confidence to global investors.

Internal factors, the market around the USDA US cotton sowing practical report early speculation, the report shows that the actual planting area of the United States cotton is lower than its March report, and it forms support for the market.

The weekly Cotlook A index averaged 81.12 cents per pound, down 2.55 cents from the previous week, and the average weekly contract price of ICE was 69.85 cents / pound, down 11.45 cents from the previous week.

Four, outlook for the future

Since July, the new export tax rebate policy has been formally implemented, the tax rebate declaration cycle has been extended, the tax refund scope has been large, the tax rebate declaration procedure has been simplified and so on. The favorable policies are undoubtedly good for small and medium-sized export enterprises. It is also a good news for the textile export industry, but at present, the reduction of enterprise orders is still a fact.

New orders for the PMI index in June and new export orders index continued to decline, and finished products.

The index increased, hitting a new high since last November.

The slowdown in China's economy and the decline in demand have attracted much attention in the next quarter.