Hongyuan Futures: Loose Monetary Policy Assistant Cotton Strong Fundamentals

FCIndex L 1% tariff

3. textile price: polyester staple fiber 12220 (+650) yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber 21280 (+200) yuan / ton.

4. Warehouse Receipt Inventory: 0 warehouse receipts.

5. electronic matching: October 11th volume reduction, high open up.

On the 11 day, the contract was set up for each month. There was a pullback in the intraday market, and the trading volume rose again. The average price of the contracts rose sharply during the closing time. The volume of orders was reduced, the order volume continued to decrease, the lowest price was MA1101, the contract price was 23760 yuan, and the highest price was MA1010, the contract was 25755 yuan.

6. Textile Economy: the price difference between C32S and grade 328 cotton is 8443 (+859) yuan / ton;

7. cotton throwing storage: October 11th

8.USDA supply and demand report: Global 10/11 year cotton data adjustment is limited, resulting in year-end inventory compared to last month forecast only a slight reduction.

The increase in Argentina, Australia and Turkey was offset by a 1 million cut in China's output.

At present, the severe shortage of supply means that consumption in 09/10 is higher than previously predicted, so the initial stock of China's cotton is also down.

Global cotton consumption and trade increased slightly.

The year-end inventory is estimated at 44 million 700 thousand bales, which is about 2 million less than the initial inventory.

Compared with the previous year, China's cotton inventories were reduced by 3 million 500 thousand packages, but stocks in Brazil, India and Australia were forecast to increase.

Summary:

In terms of domestic stock, the price of domestic seed cotton has been rising continuously. The cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. The loans issued by the Agricultural Development Bank have not yet been released, and the cotton enterprises are relatively cautious because of the restriction of funds, so the listing amount of lint cotton is obviously less than that of the same period in previous years.

There is no need to talk about the strong fundamentals of cotton. In view of the strong support of cotton fundamentals, we believe that Zheng cotton is likely to maintain high or even continue to rise in the short term, and the possibility of a larger pullback is very small.

In addition to the supply and demand of cotton itself, the weakening of US dollar index will also have more and more obvious impact on international commodities.

In order to reverse its economic weakness and the rising unemployment rate, the US monetary authorities released the signal of continuing to expand liquidity.

The possibility of using quantitative easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has been greatly increased, which also makes the US dollar maintain a weak probability in the short run.

Cotton is facing double advantages of supply and demand and monetary environment.